El nino The warm phase of the El Nino Southern oscillation or Enzo system the first unino watch was issued on April 13th when one of the conditions for El Nino was initially met we’ll get back to that in a minute but on June 8th of this year the arrival of El Nino was officially confirmed by scientists at NOAA based on their predictions 2023 is going to be a really hot year and it’s very likely.
That 2024 will be the hottest year ever recorded So ENSO System what is the Enzo system the Enzo system is the world’s most important climate cycle it’s a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperatures of the Central and Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean this phenomenon has three potential phases a cold hot and neutral phase during a neutral Enzo phase sometimes called lanata or nothing in Spanish something.
I just learned the ocean temperatures are average and we get typically mild weather patterns around the world the hot phase is what we call El Nino which is Spanish for the child or the boy the name comes from 17th century Peruvian fishermen who noticed warmer Waters and poor fishing during Christmas and Associated it with when Waters get colder we get the opposite effect so we call that phase La Nina.
Which means the girl the Enzo cycle usually lasts between two and seven years averaging about five with El Nino and La Nina phases lasting an average of 9 to 12 months it’s during these months that we see stronger weather events in some parts of the world but the last La Nina phase lasted three years instead of nine to twelve months earning the nickname the Last Cycle triple dip La Nina now the Enzo is bouncing back to an El Nino and it’s gonna be bad to understand.
Why this result Nino is going to be such a beast let’s look at how El Nino’s work but before we get into that I gotta tell you about our and this the F2000 portable power station this thing is jam-packed with some of the coolest Tech with two kilo hours of energy storage and a Max output of 2400 Watts you can Power 99 of your stuff my favorite feature is its portability with its unibody drop proof design pull out handle and rugged Wheels.
It’s a breeze to move around plug in your Internet modem wireless router and fridge during your power outage and you’ll barely even be inconvenienced you can even charge it with solar panels on your next Great Outdoor Adventure or plug it in and thanks to its hyper flash technology it’ll charge up from zero to eighty percent in just an hour and thanks to EV gray lithium iron phosphate batteries you can use it daily for over 10 years.
The Pacific Ocean and not The Power of the Pacific about the other oceans that’s because the Pacific literally controls Global Climate due to its sheer size to put the sheer scale and signific ance of the Pacific Ocean into perspective it covers 47 percent of the water surface of the planet that’s double the area and over twice the volume of the water in the Atlantic which is the next largest the point is even though El Nino happens over the Pacific.
It’s a fact stretch across the globe for example El Nino also affects the jet stream which is an atmospheric River of high-speed wind that circulates around the earth near the poles during El Nino events the jet stream can weaken and shift to the South often leading to an increase in storms along the southern coast of North America during the winter it also brings in hotter Summers like we are witnessing.
Now this shift in the jet stream also brings warmer temperatures and drier Impacts conditions to Northern areas like the northern U.S and Canada it can also call cause extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts in other parts of the world floods are common in places like Peru Ecuador Colombia Venezuela Chile and Bolivia in South America drought conditions tend to be more wide spread and can occur in parts of North America Central America.
The Caribbean Islands Australia Africa and parts of Asia and finally El Nino can also cause higher than normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean but we’ll get back to that in a moment now not all of these effects are sure to show up during a particular El Nino season global weather is much more complicated than that and there are other forces at play but statistically speaking there is a strong correlation between the strength of the El Nino phase and its effects on those global weather patterns so just how strong will the 2023 super El Nino be I mean why are the scientists saying.
That this year’s El Nino is going to be stronger than ever scientists measure the intensity of an El Nino event by measuring how much warmer or colder the ocean’s surface temperatures are than the normal average this is called the oceanic Nino index or Oni that is true these temperatures are tracked within a particular patch of the Pacific Ocean along the Equator called El Nino
So for Noah to declare an El Nino event three things have to happen one the ocean must be What makes El Niño at least 0.5 degrees Celsius hotter than normal for a given month the normal temperature here is compared to the 30-year long-term average from 1991 to 2020. if the water is more than 0.5 degrees Celsius colder then it’s classified as La Nina and if it’s between 0.5 above or below the Enzo is considered in its neutral phase second there should be evidence
That the event will persist scientists use complex computer models to forecast sea surface temperatures for the coming months and that’s how they predict if the conditions will last the final condition requires the emergence of changes in weather patterns that are typically associated with an El Nino event from late January to late May the Enzo system came out of the triple diplanemia and entered a neutral phase temperatures kept Rising Noah then issued an El Nino warning in mid-april.
When the water reached a temperature over 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal the first condition was met but not the others how ever on June 8th over 90 percent of all weather forecast models agreed that the warmer temperatures would persist that’s condition number two also they were more than mild indications of changing weather patterns particularly in Canada if you’ve been watching the news lately a warmer drier and earlier than normal summer caused by the descending jet stream has contributed to more than 2 700 wildfires along Alberta Nova Scotia Ontario and Quebec.
Now this will only affect Canada as the smoke clouds are spreading it’s reached Ireland and the UK as of June 26th but here in these states things are also looking pretty bleak we’re currently witnessing record high summer temperatures even though the hottest months of the year are typically weeks away as of Impact on the US the making of this blog there’s a massive heat wave in the central U.S that has over 45 million Americans under official heat alert.
Because of an expanding heat Dome Over Texas just take a look at this temperature map from June 20th multiple parts of Texas are recording scorching temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit this is seriously dangerous stuff this heat wave has already taken the lives of two hikers who went on a hike in the Big Bend National Park when temperatures hit 119 degrees this is only the beginning right now the latest measurement of the Oni for the El Nino 3.4 region is 0.9 degrees Celsius above average.
el nino the climate changing phenomenon
But almost all models predict this temperature will keep rising in the coming months peaking around October November during the northern winter some of the most advanced models predict the ocean temperatures will reach a staggering 2.73 degrees Celsius above average others predict 2.5 several more predict at least two and most other forecast temperatures well over 1.5 degrees Celsius this puts the 2023 El Nino event as a potential super Super El NiñoEl Nino.
Which happens when Central Pacific Waters reach at least 2 degrees above average to put this into perspective here’s a graph of The observed monthly Oni values since 1950. all values are 0.5 and above represent El Nino events this graph shows two things we’ve had a total of only four super El Nino events since 1972 with a tie for the strongest ever recorded El Nino between 9798 and 2015-2016 Seasons with 2016 ranking as the hottest year in recorded history.
The intensity of super El Nino event has been growing stronger over time and this time it seems like it’ll get even worse as I mentioned before we’re coming into a bounce back effect from a triple dip La Nina this matters because the ocean is the world’s largest carbon sink absorbing 25 of all the carbon emissions and 90 of the excess heat caused by those emissions cold water can actually absorb more carbon and heat from the air than warm water can this is why La Nina usually comes with lower average global temperatures.
Because the water is colder however even though we just had a three-year long La Nina 2022 was the fifth hottest year ever recorded and now that the tides have turned and the ocean is getting warmer it’s also getting ready to release giga tons worth of green house Severe Weather gases and excess stored heat into the atmosphere another clear sign of a stronger than usual El Nino event is that the U.S drop monitor reported a faster than normal decrease in drought conditions across the country this dropped from 63 percent at the start of November 2022 to 19 by the end of May 2023.
That’s definitely good news for places in drought but that’s the fastest decline in drought conditions since we began tracking them in 2000 and it points to a strong El Nino effect on the jet stream I mentioned before so the 2023.
Super El Nino is going to be massive how massive the only way to put it into context is to compare it to the closest competitor the 2015-2016 El Nino let’s recap what happened during that year first during this season the southern states especially along the Gulf Coast received much higher precipitation than normal during the winter months.
for example
Texas had its wettest winter on record with an average of 16.8 inches of rain which was 7.4 above normal Florida also had its second wettest winter on record with 4.7 inches more rain than normal that is set to happen again in the 2023-2024 winter season only worse but that’s the milder side 2016 has the second highest annual number of billion dollar weather-related disasters in U.S history there were a total of 203 disasters 15 of which were extreme events including Hurricane Matthew in October.
The northern Central Texas hail storm of April and the ongoing Mega drought here in California to name a few in total these natural disasters killed 138 people and caused 46 billion dollars in direct damages and that was with a peak sea surface temperature of 2.3 degrees above average imagine with 2.7 would do with the exception of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 which has been the costliest natural disaster in U.S history most billion dollar disasters are linked to El Nino events and the overall cost in human lives and damages has been increasing steadily Yale climate connections contributor Michael Lowry explained in simple terms.
Why this year’s El Nino could also trigger one of the worst hurricane seasons in the Atlantic he stated the Tropical Atlantic has been running an astounding full degree Celsius or warmer above its long-term average blistering warmth that in any other year would signal an active hurricane season ahead and What Can You Do? that means that it’s not just the Pacific that’s getting worked up we really have to embrace ourselves.
We’re heading toward a pretty ugly situation and we desperately need to prepare if you’re in any of the regions where you’re likely to see the impacts of the super El Nino event it’s probably a good idea to at least consider getting flood insurance or fire insurance or something similar it’s also important to take official warnings seriously and make sure we have a backup plan to cool off if you have to spend time outside during a particularly hot day but as an engineer.
I also like to take a more pro active approach to preparation one that doesn’t only depend on public utilities or the government setting up backup systems for power for example is why talk so much about batteries and solar better Communications water and food or totally going off-grid are all things you can do in some small way so.
for example
one of the big concerns whenever the heat starts to rise is people running their air conditioning especially in the U.S where people are not keen to turn the thermostat up and overload the grid and causing brown outs to happen so for me.
I now have a 11 kilowatt solar system which produces all the power I need next up for me is home batteries if I got those two things together even the power goes out I could still run my house and my business and that’s why I love that technology.
So much it’s the emergency preparedness of it all that said predictions and forecasts are only that predictions based on models and those models could be wrong we could end up with a mild El Nino.
That doesn’t really do all that much harm there is a more than 50 chance that this year’s El Nino will be a beast but there’s also a chance that as alarmist or to scare people I’m bringing you all the data how this works I honestly didn’t know and now I fully understand what El ninos are that there’s a la NADA didn’t know that and how.
This year is shaping up so definitely keep a prize of the news where you live and be prepared there’s going to be increases in air conditioning usage power outages those are things that are probably going to happen especially as the temperatures start to rise in regions that have air conditioning you know I love you take care of you and yours be safe out there.
El Nino – What is it?
It can affect weather around the world changing the odds of floods, drought, heat waves and cold seasons for different regions even raising global temperatures But what is El Niño and how does it happen? up from deeper down in the oceana process called up welling.
with more cloud in rainfall That rising air in the West sets up atmospheric circulation across this part of the world with warm moist air rising on one side of This circulation reinforces the easterly winds so this part of the world sits in a self-perpetuating state until El Niño begins side.
This allows the usually colder parts of the ocean to warm canceling out the normal temperature difference Because the area of warmest water moves so does the associated wet and.
El Niño which happens because of all the extra heat at the surface of the tropical Pacific. This releases vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
Which can temporarily push up global temperatures. El Niño peaks around Christmas-time and last for several months. This is the flip side of the oscillation which sees a strengthening of the normal trade winds.
This pushes the warmest water to the far western part of the tropical Pacific and increases the upwelling of cold water in the east effects to El Niño.Y ou can also see more about La Niña and its impacts.
el nino and la nina
It’s going to be a big one what I see really looks very concerning to me Steve I’m seeing really warm Sea Service temperatures in the equatorial East Pacific that would be indicative of a strong Amino a strong El Nino can mean big consequences from droughts in Brazil and southern Africa to floods in East Africa and the Southern United States.
So why do warmse as in one place mess with the weather world wide let’s start in the tropical Pacific Ocean the sun heats up the water normally winds from the East push that warm water into the Western Pacific so you have this huge worm pool thats traddles the indo-pacific ocean around the maritime continent of Indonesia and this is where you know Rising motion occurs and cloud formation heavy rainfall warm air Rising off the warm water is like a pair of convey or belts fitted with leaky buckets.
They lift humid air and dump rain what goes up must come down on the down side of the convey or belt the buckets are empty dry air descends over the Arabian Sea and on the Eastern belt dry air descends over the Eastern Pacific but every three to five years or so the winds that pushed the Pacific Hot Spot West they get weaker that’s the first stage of El Nino with an El Nino.
The warmest water in the Pacific shifts to the eastand this produces ascending motion over that warm water in in the Central Pacific but then descending motion over the maritime continent the descending convey or belts with their empty buckets dry out southeast Asia to the east dryair descends over Northern South America that means a risk of drought crop losses and wild fires in both places but the impacts don’t stop there when that descending motion reaches the surface.
It diverges that is some of it goes backtowards the Pacific but some goes in to the Indian Ocean and that that diverging air mass at the surface is tending to push warm water towards the Western Indian Ocean rising from the Western Indian Ocean warm water conveyor belts dump Heavy Rain on Somalia Kenya and Eastern Ethiopia that’s good news after five failed rainy Seasons the region is on the brink off amine but too much rain is not good either.
We would want them to have good rain abundant rainfall enough to replenish the reservoirs and also that is healthy for the clubs but frequent flooding can definitely be a problem while East Africa faces floods it’s a different story to the North west and South it’s very likely that we’ll see suppressed rain over Northern Ethiopia and potentially another really strong drought like we had in 2015 and then you know if that persists.
You know we could also see a drought over South Eastern Africa as we saw in 2016 it depends how long El Nino lasts and how strong it gets we’ll know later this year they usually last 9 to 12 months and Peak between October and February these forecasts casts are not guarantees the weather is complicated but El Nino raises the odds of extremes in much of the world.
el nino disturbing our Environment alarming suituation for all countries!
Imagine you are a fisherman in Perusitting on a boat in the Pacific Oceans hivering waiting for a catch you wait for some more but no fish comes your way you unmindfully dip your hand in the ocean but the moment your finger tips touch the water you think to yourself why is this warm curious and confused with the discovery you explore a little more and notice that there are no fishes no sign of any other marine life White Zombie coralreefs and seemingly warm water.
What is going on it’s time to explore the Pacific Ocean is a vast expanse of Deep Blue teeming with life and secrets but beneath its surface What is El Nino there exists an unexplainable phenomenon which arises now and then reshaping and rebooting the Dynamics of our planet’s climate we are talking about El Nino and in 2023 it is more powerful than everbut before we get to what it is going to do let’s first understand what El Nino is El Nino is a climatic pattern.
That causes the unusual warming of surface waters in the Eastern tropical Pacific Oceanit translates to little boy in Spanish which basically means the warm phase of a much larger phenomenon called the El Nino Southern oscillations or Enzo there’s another phase of the enso called La Nina which means a little girl it is the cooler phase that causes.
The unusual cooling of the Region’s surface waters episodes of El Nino and La Nina typically last 9 to 12 months but can sometimes last for years El Nino and La Nina events occur every two to seven years on average but they don’t occur regularly Why should we be concerned but why should we be concerned well the Pacific.
Now let’s think of this whole cycle as a run and chase game during normal conditions the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean run to the West along the Equator taking warm water from South America towards Asia to replace that warm water cold water rises from the depths of the sea and chases.
The trade winds to the surface the whole process is called upwelling upwelling elevates cold nutrient-rich water to the euphotic Zone the upper layer of the oceanit provides food for a wide variety of marine life including most major Fisheries a thick layer of warm water accumulates on the surface obstructing the flow of cold water from beneath.
productive Coastale cosystem fish populations die or migrate according to Dr Kevin trenberth from the U.S national Center for atmospheric research in a recent interview increased absorption will cause more extreme and long-lasting Marine heat waves which are classified as an area of the ocean where the temperatures are in the top 10 percent.
Now that we know what El Nino is let’s see what it does El Nino starts playing with the weather all around the world it messes with rainfall patterns causing massive droughts in some areas while drenching the others whereas the Gulf Coast and large parts of coastal South America becomes wetter the northern United States and Canadatends to become warmer and drier Peru and Ecuador receive their wettest months from April to October and during more severe.
El Nino years rainfall and flooding in those regions can be catastrophicin severe 1997 to 98 devastating flood bombarded Peru collapsing Bridges and burying entire Shandy towns under ameter thick layer of mud The increased rainfall in South America typically coincides with a pronounced period of drought in South Asia and Australia several famines have been recorded in India and a delay in Australia’s monsoon seasoncan lead to massively destructive bush fires Australia is a literal Tinder box over.
Which El Nino looms like a proverbial flame thrower locals are advised to prepare for the worst coming to our planet’s ecosystems El Nino messes with marine life end angering coral reefs and disrupting food webs Coral bleaching where vibrant reefs as colorful as the rainbow turned ghostly white is just one consequence of the warmer Waters caused by El Ninoa severe El Nino in 1998 estimated 16 of the world’s coral reefs to die kicking off a cataclysmic Mass bleaching event that persists to this day.
It’s devastating for marine ecosystems and the countless species that call them home El Nino takes a toll on our health too that’s right excessive rainfall on the accumulation of stagnant water creates the perfect speed dating ground for disease-carrying mosquitoes and the birth of water borne diseases imagine how convenient it becomes to escalate the cases of dengue fever malaria typhoid Etc.
Even the droughts lead to water scarcity inadequates anitation and hygiene issues Plot twist but wait there’s a plot twist too the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that climate change and El Nino directly impacts each other crazy right the increasing frequency and intensity of El Nino events magnify the impacts of climate change extreme weather events sea level rise and a whole host of climate-related challenges are on the horizon El Nino in 2014-16 had left a dent of an impact in our minds as well on our planet.
It was Earth’s warmest in 134 years of Records according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for space studies and guess what scientists have recently issued early predictions indicating the return of El Nino in the latter part of 2023 starting from Autumn and continuing into 2024 the worst part of the news is that this time the global temperature is projected to reach 21.1 degrees Celsius during the episode surpassing.
The temperature recorded in 2016 by 1.5 degrees now you know that El Nino is a disruption of normal and not just a climate pattern it’s a wake-up call for us to cherish and Safeguard our environmenten so is global and in the last few decades destructive consequences included flooding drought famine and death so you believe it or not.
El Nino will directly or indirectly affect every one of us in some way we definitely need to improve our monitoring and early Warning Systems develop adaptive strategies for affected sectors and promote sustainable practices.
That enhance resilience to climate variability and change and as our beloved novelist Ernest Heming way said the Earth is a fine place and Worth Fighting For what do you guys have to say drop in your comments below.
